Your first birth sets the pattern for all the others
A first cesarean is very likely to be followed by more.
Only about 15% of American women with a previous cesarean give birth vaginally afterward. In practice, a first cesarean usually means every later birth is also a cesarean.
Population data show this clearly. Between 2005 and 2014, women with a previous cesarean grew from 27% to more than 34% of all cesareans performed in the United States. The group grew mostly because more women were entering pregnancy already carrying a scar, not because the rate within the group changed.
Why this matters most for a first babyThe decision that carries the most weight over a lifetime is the first one. Risks that are small after one cesarean become substantial after three or four. If you plan to have several children, the first cesarean is the one to think hardest about.
Where this comes from:
271. Osterman MJK, Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Driscoll AK, Valenzuela CP. Births: final data for 2024. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2026;75(2):1-48.
276. Hehir MP, Ananth CV, Siddiq Z, Flood K, Friedman AM, D'Alton ME. Cesarean delivery in the United States 2005 through 2014: a population-based analysis using the Robson 10-Group Classification System. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2018;219(1):105.e1-105.e11.
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