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Evidence Library · Tests that do not predict

The "egg timer" test sold to you online

Most sellers claim it tells you your chance of conceiving. Most of them do not tell you it cannot.

Researchers read 27 websites in seven countries selling AMH tests directly to consumers, sampled from the top results of four search strings. What the sites claimed:

Claim madeShare of the 27 sites
The test indicates ovarian reserve96%
The test indicates likelihood of conceiving74%
It lets women adjust their reproductive timeline41%
It helps decide whether to freeze eggs30%
Mentioned that polycystic ovary syndrome falsely raises AMH48%
Stated that the test cannot accurately predict chances of conceiving33%

In a national survey of 1,773 Australian women, 7% had had an AMH test, rising to 14% among women aged 35 to 39. About a third had it for reasons the evidence does not support. Most had it ordered by a doctor, not bought online, so this is not only a marketing problem.

The experiment that closes the argument967 women in Australia and the Netherlands were randomly assigned to read either evidence-based information about the AMH test or the existing information from a website selling it. Women shown the honest version had significantly lower interest in having the test (mean difference 1.05 on a 7-point scale), less positive attitudes toward it, and higher knowledge about it.

The authors wrote: Despite previous studies suggesting women are enthusiastic about AMH testing to learn about their fertility potential, we demonstrate that this enthusiasm does not hold when they are informed about the test's limitations.

That is a randomized demonstration that demand for this test is manufactured by the information environment. It is also, uncomfortably, a demonstration of what a tool like this one is for.

If someone offers you this test to answer the question "how long can I wait", the answer that the evidence supports is that it will not tell you.

Where this comes from:
23. Johnson A, Thompson R, Nickel B, Shih P, Hammarberg K, Copp T. Websites selling direct-to-consumer anti-Mullerian hormone tests. JAMA Netw Open. 2023;6(8):e2330192.
24. Copp T, Thompson R, Doust J, Hammarberg K, Peate M, Lensen S, et al. Community awareness and use of anti-Müllerian hormone testing in Australia: a population survey of women. Hum Reprod. 2023;38(8):1571-1577.
25. Copp T, van Nieuwenhoven T, McCaffery KJ, Hammarberg K, Cvejic E, Doust J, et al. Women's interest, knowledge, and attitudes relating to anti-Mullerian hormone testing: a randomized controlled trial. Hum Reprod. 2024;39(9):2010-2020.

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